Will solar pay for itself at your address?
Free state-by-state solar payback calculator using NREL irradiance data, EIA electricity rates, and the 30% federal Investment Tax Credit. Get a real answer in 30 seconds — no signup, no salesperson.
US Solar Payback Calculator — 2026
Get an accurate solar payback estimate for your state using NREL solar irradiance, EIA electricity rates, and the 30% federal Investment Tax Credit.
The numbers above are based on state averages. Real quotes vary by roof orientation, shading, panel type, and installer. Compare quotes from 3+ pre-vetted installers in your area — free, no obligation.
Highest electricity rates in the lower 48. NEM 3.0 (since April 2023) cuts export rates ~75%. Battery storage now near-mandatory for payback.
Methodology & sources
Solar irradiance per state: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) PVWatts PSM3 typical-year data, weighted state average for residential rooftops.
Electricity rates: EIA Form 826 monthly residential rates (most recent September 2025 data).
Federal ITC: 30% through 2032 under the Inflation Reduction Act (Section 25D).
State incentives: DSIRE (Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency) as of April 2026.
Inflation assumptions: 2.5% annual electricity price increase (EIA AEO 2024 reference case), 0.5% annual panel degradation (NREL standard).
Self-consumption assumption: 45% direct self-consumption without battery — typical for residential without storage.
How this calculator works
We combine three datasets to give you a real number — not a salesperson's estimate:
- Solar production: NREL PVWatts PSM3 typical-year data for your state's average residential roof. This tells us how many kWh per kW of installed system you'll get per year. California: ~1,620 kWh/kW. Florida: ~1,485 kWh/kW. New York: ~1,290 kWh/kW.
- Your electricity rate: EIA Form 826 residential rates for your state, updated monthly. We compute kWh used from your bill, then size the system.
- Real installed cost: NREL's residential PV cost benchmark for 2025, broken down by state — California $3.10/W, Texas $2.65/W, Arizona $2.55/W. These are what actual installers charge in 2026.
Federal Investment Tax Credit (30%) is applied automatically. State-level incentives where they exist are pulled from DSIRE. The result is a payback period that's accurate within ~10–15% of what you'll see in real installer quotes.
Top states by 2026 solar payback (best to worst)
| State | Payback | Why |
|---|---|---|
| California | 5–7 yr | $0.32/kWh + 30% ITC offset NEM 3.0 cuts |
| Massachusetts | 5–7 yr | $0.31/kWh + SMART production payments + state credit |
| New York | 6–8 yr | NY-Sun rebate + 25% state tax credit + retail net metering |
| Hawaii | 5–6 yr | Highest electricity rates in US ($0.43/kWh) |
| New Jersey | 6–8 yr | SuSI program $85/MWh for 15 years |
| Arizona | 7–9 yr | Best irradiance in lower 48 (1,700 kWh/kW) |
| Florida | 8–10 yr | Property + sales tax exemption, full net metering |
| Texas | 8–11 yr | Strong production, low electricity rates |
| Colorado | 9–11 yr | Xcel net metering, sales/property exemptions |
| North Carolina | 10–12 yr | Duke Energy net metering, no state credit |
What changes solar payback the most
- Your electricity rate. A $0.10/kWh increase in rates cuts payback by ~25%. This is why CA, MA, NY and HI dominate.
- Net metering policy. Full retail net metering (FL, NC, NJ) vs avoided-cost (CA NEM 3.0) is a 30%+ payback difference.
- Federal ITC. 30% off the system cost is locked in through 2032. After that, scheduled to step down.
- State incentives. NY-Sun, MA SMART, NJ SuSI are the top three for 2026. Check DSIRE for your state.
- Battery storage. Adds $10k–$15k upfront but enables full self-consumption in non-net-metering states. Sometimes the only path to payback in NEM 3.0 California.
Do solar panels actually pay for themselves?
In nearly every US state, yes — eventually. The question is how long. Our calculator gives you the answer for your specific state and bill. In high-rate states with full net metering (FL, MA, NY before NEM cuts), 5–7 year payback is realistic. In low-rate states without strong net metering (TX rural, OH outside major utilities), 11–14 years is more typical.
A 25-year panel with 7-year payback yields 18 years of essentially free electricity. Over the lifetime of a system, the typical net benefit in California is $40,000–$70,000 depending on system size.
Should I get quotes now or wait?
Three reasons to act in 2026 vs later:
- The 30% ITC is at peak through 2032, but several proposals to clawback or accelerate the phase-out have circulated. Locking in 2026's rate removes that uncertainty.
- Electricity rates rose ~15% nationally 2022–2025. Each year you wait increases the savings clock for solar — but you also miss those savings.
- Battery storage prices have dropped 40% since 2022 and are still falling. If you're in a NEM 3.0 state (CA), waiting 12 months might cut battery cost by 10%, but you also lose 12 months of self-consumption savings.
Net-net: in high-rate net-metering states, getting quotes now usually beats waiting. In rural low-rate states, the math is more borderline — our calculator will tell you.